Humans vs Machines: Who Wins Tomorrow?

Author(s): Arav Jain

Originally published on Towards AI.

Will AI really steal your job?

“A computer would deserve to be called intelligent if it could deceive a human into believing that it was human” — Alan Turing, father of theoretical computer science and artificial intelligence

Artificial Intelligence is a key. A magical key that could unlock the world’s most enigmatic mysteries, solve the most pressing issues and revolutionise efficiency in the largest industries. It’s pivotal that AI thrives, flies and reaches new heights. Caging it, or ruthlessly cutting its wings down, won’t halt its journey, but rather, would give birth to an artificial, mammoth gap in our very own progress.

So, what is AI? Simply put, it’s the science of making machines think like humans and, accordingly, make decisions. However, many popular figures have recently pointed out the long and dark shadows it may cast on the job market. But really, will those be dark? Or will they be the shine of prosperity?

So let’s jump to the million-dollar question — How will AI shape the job market? Will it make billions homeless or give their lives a new dimension? Since this conflict can’t be defined quantitatively, the following are some unconsciously made assumptions by people when they claim that AI would snatch a job.

1) Machines can do the work humans can with less cost and more efficiency

Artificial Intelligence is at a stage where it’s struggling to determine the difference between the sounds of an ‘h’ and an ‘eight’ — Byron Reese, tech entrepreneur and futurist, author of The Fourth Age, with 25+ years of experience leading AI and technology ventures.

Machines enhanced with AI will be preferred over human labour by capitalists only if they can perform jobs with higher quality and lower cost. But can they even match human capabilities in efficiency?

The answer is SOMETIMES.

Jobs with repetitive patterns, fewer interactions and fewer exceptions will certainly be the first to be swept ruthlessly by the AI wave. To truly grasp this, one must learn how AI works. In simple terms, AI works on mere observations. Trained on massive amounts of data, AI identifies certain trends like apples are red, spherical and slightly oblate. Thereafter, applying these patterns, it concludes that if an image has similar features, it is probable to be of an apple.

But things don’t work out as smoothly as this. When exceptions appear that don’t follow patterns, AI’s accuracy falters. While chatbots can easily tackle routine questions, they struggle when customers express frustration, sarcasm or other complex emotions. Why? Because they work on real understanding of human behaviour and not just patterns. While AI can write basic code, it cannot innovate. Why? Because innovation requires critical thinking, creativity and problem solving. While AI can skilfully handle surveillance monitoring and traffic violation detection, it just fails to compete with investigators. Why? Because investigators work on intuition, they interpret human behaviour and moral conflicts.

A quintessential example is that of robotic arms. Robotic arms are similar to human, biological arms and cost about $25,000 to $40,000. No vacations, no eight-hour a day schedule, no demand for food or water. Besides, they last for roughly a decade. On the contrary, the average labour cost per hour in the United States is $45. Therefore, hiring just one person for a decade working twelve hours a day would cost $45 x 12 x 365 x 10 = $19,71,000. Why this enormous difference? This exists simply because these tasks are automated. No exceptions, no interactions, just a predictable schedule. Technology is truly good at it!

On the other hand, Waymo, self-driving, autonomous cars that are prevalent in the Cities of Phoenix, San Francisco, Los Angeles and Austin cost approximately $11 per mile, contrary to Uber, which costs a minimal $5 per mile despite having to pay the driver. Why is this? Because driving is not entirely predictable. There is human judgment, adaptability, and quick decision-making — something difficult and expensive to be achieved by machines.

2) Humans are machines, and machines can possess all our qualities

“Artificial Intelligence is not a substitute for human intelligence; it is a tool to amplify human creativity and ingenuity.” — Fei-Fei Li, computer scientist and AI pioneer

To strongly state that Artificial Intelligence will replace us, one will have to agree that humans are machines. But really are we? Are we merely machines waiting to be replaced by upgraded versions of ourselves?

I don’t think so.

We are forgetting what really makes us human. It’s not that enormous bank balance, not the corporate empires, and certainly not the nine-to-five job. It’s the empathy, creativity, intuition, humanity, curiosity, problem-solving skills and human judgment that make us distinct from any other superpower in this world.

Does a chatbot’s mundane voice soothe as much as a counsellor’s words do? No right? Because a counsellor creates a bond, has genuine feelings of empathy and relies on intuition to help their clients. Similarly, a blank screen doesn’t teach better than a teacher, right? Because a teacher handles each student differently and creatively, and understands their emotions. Entrepreneurs collaborate with others, innovate with their problem-solving skills and take ethical decisions — something AI can’t do.

Many argue that the recent image generation tools would replace designers, text generation tools would replace writers, and audio generation tools would replace musicians. However, there is something that makes all of them unique. Something that generative AI tools can never achieve. It’s the emotions they bring to their art. Each painting narrates a story, each write-up evokes emotions, and each song comes from an experience. Can AI, which is trained on raw data weave that story in its generation?

Others say that there will soon be AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), where AI will be more intelligent than humans, and therefore could replace humans. But one of the most fundamental question to be asked is what is intelligence? And atop that, what is the right quantity to measure intelligence? It can’t be IQ as intelligence is not merely the cognitive ability of a person, it’s a mixture of emotional intelligence, social intelligence and more. Notably, AGI is still a theoretical concept; it has not been practically implemented. So, can machines ever be more intelligent than humans, or can they even be intelligent?

3) Not enough new jobs will be created quickly

“AI will not replace jobs, but it will change the nature of work.” — Kai-Fu Lee, AI expert, computer scientist, and author of AI Superpowers

Technology follows a pattern. Take jobs, but create millions of them at the same time. During the Industrial Revolution, automation replaced many farms and artisan jobs but created opportunities in factory work, engineering and transport industries. Similarly, the internet gulped down the jobs of postal clerks, print journalists and video rental clerks, but simultaneously generated jobs in web development, digital marketing and IT support. So why can’t AI?

AI will create jobs.

Undeniably, Artificial Intelligence will take jobs like proofreaders, travel agents, drivers and labourers, but it’ll also generate countless jobs for AI Ethicists, Data Curators, Computer Programmers, Robotic Engineers, and so on. Moreover, it also creates opportunities for skilful professionals. For example, a director who was sweating to collect pennies for his shooting can now just generate whole films with a click through Sora AI. Hence, these opportunities may offset the job displacement due to Artificial Intelligence. As anticipated by the WEF (World Economic Forum), between 2023 and 2027, the profession with the largest net job growth worldwide will be “AI and Machine Learning Specialist”.

Furthermore, there are some jobs we’d never like Artificial Intelligence to conquer. Would you really like AI to become your priest, caregiver or leader? Apart from this, attaining people’s trust in products may be a challenge for companies. Will you allow a robot to carry out a vital surgery on you? Will you let an algorithm decide who gets released from prison? Would you allow a drone nurse to care for your newborn? You’d feel insecure, right? This is a tough hurdle tech giants might need to pass, making these jobs tentatively safe.

According to me, an industry that will certainly survive all these punches would be cybersecurity. As technology evolves, it poses new risks, new challenges and new threats. However, there is no other option than facing and preventing these hurdles, fueling the industry of cybersecurity.

4) Machines will always remain our slaves, and we’ll compel them to do our work

Additionally, if Artificial Intelligence gains so much power, will it remain our slaves? Do we like to be slaves of others? Will Artificial Intelligence not be reluctant to do filthy jobs for humans? Although Robot’s Second Law clearly states that robots must obey orders given by human beings except where such orders would conflict with the First Law (A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm). Anyhow, do we follow all ethical rules? These are some inquiries that need to be considered before we claim that AI would ever replace any job.

To conclude, according to me, AI may steal jobs in the near future, but will generate countless of them later. We must comprehend that advancement has never thrived under restrictions. AI must evolve, not be caged. Being optimistic about the future is the key to saving our society. Pessimism will just make us weaker. Diving into the past, technology follows a pattern: take jobs, then generate millions of them. History narrates that humans didn’t halt computers, electricity or the internet. Then why shackle AI?

Global regulations on it would wrap it in red tape and set fire to its potential. We must understand that it’s benefiting our lives in a trillion ways. In fact, AI is completely giving a new dimension to some souls. AI scans millions of medical images in seconds to detect diseases doctors might miss, giving patients a second life. AI detects potential threats in danger zones like mines, guarding countless workers. This very twenty-one-character phrase converts text into speech for dyslexic students, helping them gain knowledge they never would have. Do we really want to put a full stop on this or let it work to show us more wonders?

The correct approach is adaptation, as without innovation, we would have still been rolling our carts on hexagonal structures, scribing on hard rocks and communicating with hand gestures. Trust technology. It is built to help you. Not destroy you.

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Published via Towards AI